# Waste Connections: A Quality Compounder Sitting Near Its 52-Week Low

Waste Connections (WCN), In the Sweet Spot pick for September 22, 2026: Waste Connections combines a 92.4 quality percentile with a 15.2% projected annual re...

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In the Sweet Spot · September 22, 2026 · Waste Connections (WCN) · Industrials

**Waste Connections combines a 92.4 quality percentile with a 15.2% projected annual return, a rare pairing that lands it squarely in our sweet spot as shares sit closer to their 52-week low than their high.**

Waste Connections (WCN) was Manifest Investing's In the Sweet Spot daily stock pick for September 22, 2026. At the time of the pick, Waste Connections carried a quality percentile of 92 and a projected annual return (PAR) of 15.2% against a MIPAR of 9.6%, placing it inside the sweet spot of 14.6% to 19.6%.

## Key metrics at the time of the pick

- **Quality percentile**: 92
- **Projected annual return (PAR)**: 15.2%
- **MIPAR (median PAR of coverage)**: 9.6%
- **PROVE**: 9.7%
- **Core score (of 300)**: 232
- **Financial strength (of 100)**: 87
- **EPS stability (of 100)**: 52.9
- **Sales growth forecast**: 8.3%
- **P/E ratio**: 37.1
- **Price at pick**: $155.55
- **52-week low**: $146.89
- **52-week high**: $179.74
- **Above 52-week low**: 5.9%
- **Below 52-week high**: 13.5%
- **Dividend yield**: 0.8%
- **Projected yield**: 0.7%
- **In the sweet spot**: Yes
- **Triple play**: Yes

## Why Waste Connections stands out today

Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) pairs a 92.4 quality percentile, one of the higher marks we track, with a projected annual return (PAR) of 15.2%. PAR is our forward-looking estimate of annualized total return over roughly the next five years, built from growth, profitability, and the valuation the market is likely to assign down the road. With MIPAR (the median PAR across all the stocks we follow) at 9.6%, our sweet spot runs from 14.6% to 19.6%, five to ten points above that median. At 15.2%, WCN sits inside that band today.

The setup is worth a second look because of where the price sits, not just where the fundamentals sit. Shares trade at $155.55, only 5.9% above their 52-week low of $146.89 and 13.5% below their 52-week high of $179.74. Over the trailing week, PAR ticked up 0.6 percentage points while quality held flat, the only look-back data we record.

WCN also carries our Triple Play flag, George Nicholson’s term for a specific, hand-checked combination: a depressed price (read here as an elevated PAR), a current P/E below the projected P/E, and a current net margin below the projected net margin, i.e., room for both multiple expansion and margin improvement. We won’t cite the margin or P/E figures themselves here, since Triple Play is a qualitative flag rather than a number to quote, but the combination is uncommon enough that Nicholson considered it worth watching for.

The quality picture underneath is solid. Financial strength stands at 87.1 out of 100, comfortably in what we’d call strong condition. EPS stability sits at 52.9 out of 100, a moderate rather than glassy-smooth earnings track record. The growth forecast embedded in our projection is 8.3% annually. Core score, the sum of quality percentile, financial strength, and EPS stability (each on its own 0-100 scale, for a 0-300 range), comes to 232, above the 225 threshold we associate with core-holding candidates. The stock pays a modest current yield of 0.76%, with a projected yield of 0.7% built into the PAR.

Our AI review of the company’s recent earnings calls (covering Q4 2025 through Q2 2026, generated August 9, 2026, so it predates any developments since) describes an overall trend it characterizes as improving. It highlights consistent core pricing execution, record-low employee turnover feeding cost savings across multiple lines, and early AI-driven pricing tools already contributing to results. It also flags a genuine concern worth naming directly: ongoing cash outflows tied to the Chiquita Canyon landfill closure in California, a situation management has described as complex and slower to resolve than first expected. Solid waste volumes have also stayed soft for an extended stretch, a byproduct of broader macro conditions rather than anything company-specific. Both are real items to track rather than reasons to look away.

Waste Connections next reports earnings on October 20, 2026, roughly a month out, which gives anyone studying the name now a natural checkpoint to see whether the trends our AI review flagged (fading fuel-cost drag, pricing durability, the Chiquita cash outflow trajectory) are still tracking the way management has described them.

As always, this is research framing, not a recommendation. Manifest doesn’t buy or sell shares on anyone’s behalf; the point of “In the Sweet Spot” is to show how our methodology reads a company like this one today, so you can decide whether it merits a closer look of your own.

## Sources

- [Here's Why Investors Must Hold WCN Stock in Their Portfolios Now](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2992281/here-s-why-investors-must-hold-wcn-stock-in-their-portfolios-now?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog|rank_focused-2992281)
- [WCN Shares Rise 8.6% in 3 Months: Here's What You Should Know](https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2983909/wcn-shares-rise-8-6-in-3-months-here-s-what-you-should-know?cid=CS-STOCKNEWSAPI-FT-analyst_blog|price_surge_/_plunge-2983909)

## About In the Sweet Spot

Manifest Investing's daily stock pick: one high-quality company whose projected annual return (PAR) sits in the sweet spot above the market median (MIPAR). Each pick pairs Manifest Investing's quality percentile with its projected annual return (PAR); the sweet spot runs from MIPAR + 5 to MIPAR + 10 percentage points. Browse [every pick in the archive](/sweet-spot/archive).

_In the Sweet Spot is educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures reflect Manifest Investing's methodology as of the pick date._