In the Sweet Spot · · National Fuel Gas (NFG) · Energy
National Fuel Gas: a high-quality name landing in the sweet spot
National Fuel Gas combines a 98.5 quality percentile with a projected annual return of 19.0%, landing it in our sweet spot.
National Fuel Gas (NFG) was Manifest Investing's In the Sweet Spot daily stock pick for September 28, 2026. At the time of the pick, National Fuel Gas carried a quality percentile of 99 and a projected annual return (PAR) of 19.0% against a MIPAR of 9.8%, placing it inside the sweet spot of 14.8% to 19.8%.
Key metrics at the time of the pick
- Quality percentile
- 99
- Projected annual return (PAR)
- 19.0%
- MIPAR (median PAR of coverage)
- 9.8%
- PROVE
- 20.6%
- Core score (of 300)
- 265
- Financial strength (of 100)
- 88
- EPS stability (of 100)
- 77.9
- Sales growth forecast
- 8.0%
- P/E ratio
- 15.6
- Price at pick
- $78.99
- 52-week low
- $75.17
- 52-week high
- $97.06
- Above 52-week low
- 5.1%
- Below 52-week high
- 18.6%
- Dividend yield
- 2.6%
- Projected yield
- 2.1%
- In the sweet spot
- Yes
- Triple play
- Yes
What the numbers show
NFG carries a quality percentile of 98.5, the top slice of all companies we track on that 0-100 scale, built from financial strength, EPS stability, relative sales growth, and relative profitability measured against the rest of our database. Its financial strength score of 88.1 (out of 100) points to a sturdy balance sheet, and EPS stability of 77.9 (also out of 100) reflects a reasonably consistent earnings track record for an energy name.
Its projected annual return (PAR) sits at 19.0%. With MIPAR at 9.8%, our sweet spot runs from roughly 14.8% to 19.8%, and NFG’s PAR lands inside that band. The stock is also flagged as a Triple Play in our analyst file: an elevated PAR alongside room for both P/E expansion (current P/E of 15.6 versus a higher projected P/E) and margin enhancement (current net margin below the projected figure), George Nicholson’s term for that particular combination of conditions.
Add those three together, quality, financial strength, and EPS stability, and NFG’s core score comes to 265 out of a possible 300, comfortably above the 225 threshold we use to describe a potential core-holding candidate.
The stock trades at $78.99, about 5.1% above its 52-week low of $75.17 and 18.6% below its 52-week high of $97.06. Its projected dividend yield is 2.1%, below the current yield of 2.64%, a gap that mechanically reflects the return math behind PAR.
Putting it together
What makes NFG worth a closer look today is the alignment of a company that already screens well on quality, financial strength, and projected return, all landing inside our sweet spot band at once.
As always, this is a research observation, not a recommendation. Quality, PAR, and the Triple Play flag are inputs for your own study, not a signal to act.
National Fuel Gas has also been the In the Sweet Spot pick on: August 27, 2026.
About In the Sweet Spot
Manifest Investing's daily stock pick: one high-quality company whose projected annual return (PAR) sits in the sweet spot above the market median (MIPAR). Each pick pairs Manifest Investing's quality percentile with its projected annual return (PAR); the sweet spot runs from MIPAR + 5 to MIPAR + 10 percentage points. Browse every pick in the archive.
In the Sweet Spot is educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures reflect Manifest Investing's methodology as of the pick date.