# First Horizon reports Q3 this morning with its PAR in the sweet spot

First Horizon Nat. (FHN), In the Sweet Spot pick for October 15, 2026: First Horizon (FHN) reports Q3 results before the open today; a PAR of 17.9% sits insi...

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In the Sweet Spot · October 15, 2026 · First Horizon Nat. (FHN) · Financials

**First Horizon (FHN) reports Q3 results before the open today; a PAR of 17.9% sits inside the sweet spot, with a Triple Play flag and a quality percentile of 82.3.**

First Horizon Nat. (FHN) was Manifest Investing's In the Sweet Spot daily stock pick for October 15, 2026. At the time of the pick, First Horizon Nat. carried a quality percentile of 82 and a projected annual return (PAR) of 17.9% against a MIPAR of 10.0%, placing it inside the sweet spot of 15.0% to 20.0%.

## Key metrics at the time of the pick

- **Quality percentile**: 82
- **Projected annual return (PAR)**: 17.9%
- **MIPAR (median PAR of coverage)**: 10.0%
- **PROVE**: 11.8%
- **Core score (of 300)**: 233
- **Financial strength (of 100)**: 71
- **EPS stability (of 100)**: 79.6
- **Sales growth forecast**: 6.1%
- **P/E ratio**: 12.0
- **Price at pick**: $22.67
- **52-week low**: $19.80
- **52-week high**: $26.56
- **Above 52-week low**: 14.5%
- **Below 52-week high**: 14.6%
- **Dividend yield**: 2.7%
- **Projected yield**: 2.2%
- **In the sweet spot**: Yes
- **Triple play**: Yes

_Educational research only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and outcomes are never guaranteed._

**Why today.** First Horizon Corporation (NYSE: FHN) [announced](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-horizon-corporation-to-announce-third-quarter-financial-results-on-october-15-2026-302886313.html) that it would report third-quarter results on October 15, 2026, which is today, and [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/26/10/62185810/first-horizon-gears-up-for-q3-print-here-are-the-recent-forecast-changes-from-wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts) says the release comes before the opening bell. Anything we say about the quarter’s results will be out of date by the time you read this, so we look at the setup going in.

**Where it sits in our framework.** MIPAR, the median projected annual return across the stocks we follow, is 10.0%. The sweet spot runs from MIPAR plus 5 points to MIPAR plus 10 points, or 15.0% to 20.0%. FHN’s PAR (Projected Annual Return, our five-year annualized estimate built from the growth forecast, projected profitability and the valuation the market is likely to assign at the end of the period) is 17.9%. That puts it inside the band, with room on both sides of the edges. The analyst file’s growth forecast is 6.1%, a modest figure, and the projected yield is 2.2% against a current yield of 2.73%. The price is $22.67, which is 14.6% below its 52-week high of $26.56 and 14.5% above its 52-week low of $19.80. PAR rises when price falls, so some of that pullback is part of why the return estimate looks attractive.

**Quality and consistency.** The quality percentile is 82.3; above 80 is our “excellent” band. It blends financial strength, EPS stability, relative sales growth and relative profitability. Financial strength is 70.8 out of 100, solid rather than fortress-level, and EPS stability is 79.6 out of 100, so earnings have been fairly smooth. Add quality, financial strength and EPS stability and the core score is 233 out of 300, above the 225 level that marks a core holding candidate.

**Triple Play.** FHN carries the Triple Play flag in our analyst file. That is George Nicholson’s idea of an elevated PAR, a current P/E below the projected P/E, and a current net margin below the projected net margin. The flag is hand-assigned, and it means the file sees room for both multiple and profitability improvement. It does not guarantee either.

**What our AI review of recent earnings calls says (through Q2 2026, generated October 9, 2026; it predates today’s call).** The review characterizes the overall trend as slightly up: steady, volume-driven improvement. Green flags included commercial loan growth, commercial real estate balances growing again after several quarters of decline, improving credit quality, and a capital position with some potential help from proposed Basel III rules. Management also delivered on most of its stated expectations, including its credit and expense guidance. Yellow flags matter too. Deposit costs turned from falling to rising, funding leaned on brokered deposits, fixed income revenue cooled, and management expects competition to pressure loan and deposit spreads. The review notes that the earlier margin tailwinds have faded into modest headwinds. Today’s report is the first look at whether that balance held in Q3.

**Outside data point.** The Wall Street consensus 12-month price target, per our data aggregator, is $27.44. It is a one-year view from other analysts, a different horizon from our five-year PAR, and we offer it only as context.

**What to weigh.** A mid-single-digit growth forecast means the PAR leans on valuation and profitability assumptions as much as on rapid expansion, and regional banks are sensitive to deposit costs and the credit cycle. We would want to see how the Q3 call treats net interest margin, deposit costs and credit before drawing conclusions.

For the record, this feature takes no position and buys no shares on anyone’s behalf.

## Sources

- [First Horizon Corporation to Announce Third Quarter Financial Results on October 15, 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-horizon-corporation-to-announce-third-quarter-financial-results-on-october-15-2026-302886313.html)
- [First Horizon Gears Up For Q3 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts](https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/price-target/26/10/62185810/first-horizon-gears-up-for-q3-print-here-are-the-recent-forecast-changes-from-wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts)

First Horizon Nat. has also been the In the Sweet Spot pick on: [July 15, 2026](/sweet-spot/fhn-first-horizon-nat-2026-07-15).

## About In the Sweet Spot

Manifest Investing's daily stock pick: one high-quality company whose projected annual return (PAR) sits in the sweet spot above the market median (MIPAR). Each pick pairs Manifest Investing's quality percentile with its projected annual return (PAR); the sweet spot runs from MIPAR + 5 to MIPAR + 10 percentage points. Browse [every pick in the archive](/sweet-spot/archive).

_In the Sweet Spot is educational and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures reflect Manifest Investing's methodology as of the pick date._